Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x8913…ec96 sports 285 markets active 20h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%161W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$67
14 days−$127
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% +$48
world 24% +$63
crypto 21% $0
other 20% −$70
finance 6% −$32
politics 4% −$12
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -5.0% -14.0% 57% 53% -19.3%
≤30d 227 -12.8% -21.1% 54% 48% -17.2%
≤90d 229 -12.1% -20.5% 54% 49% -13.8%
all 282 -4.9% -13.9% 57% 51% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 51% -9.4%
10% -22.2% 39% -18.1%
15% -29.7% 27% -26.0%
20% -36.6% 16% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses161 / 121
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)282 / 285
History coverage228d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 39¢ 12¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $3 +$3 +108%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$19 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$9 -29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 −$3 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -75%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 +$14 +172%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $9 +$2 +17%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $7 +$3 +42%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $7 +$2 +27%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $6 −$2 -25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$8 -26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -87%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $16 −$9 -58%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $3 −$1 -47%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $4 +$2 +51%
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $3 +$1 +41%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $7 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 47¢ $3 19h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $8 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 55¢ $18 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 40h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $14 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 76¢ $10 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 82¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Tessa Brockmann 77¢ $9 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 74¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.45 · official $31.45 (match) · 669 history records