Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x8918…8824 crypto 1190 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,186 (+0%) realized +$1,223 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%1054W / 125L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$247
14 days+$1,843
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$1,332
other 24% −$742
sports 22% +$687
tech 2% −$204
finance 2% +$111
politics 1% −$10
world 0% −$12
weather 0% +$2
economics 0% +$17
culture 0% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +4.5% -5.4% 96% 32% -7.0%
≤30d 92 +9.6% -0.9% 89% 25% -9.1%
≤90d 557 -0.9% -10.3% 87% 12% -9.0%
all 1179 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 9% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$79 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$2,848
Realized+$1,223
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1054 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1179 / 1190
History coverage597d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $610 $618 +$8 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $455 $458 +$2 (+1%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $400 $393 −$7 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $430 $351 −$79 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $295 $276 −$19 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $180 $241 +$61 (+34%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $175 $180 +$5 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $120 +$10 (+9%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $533 +$12 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$33 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $244 +$14 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $301 +$19 +6%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $995 +$5 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $293 +$7 +2%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $501 +$29 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$27 +13%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $301 +$40 +13%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $300 +$15 +5%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $201 +$40 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $400 +$8 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $400 +$9 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 +$6 +11%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $301 +$29 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $257 −$256 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $200 +$10 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $201 +$32 +16%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $201 +$22 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $200 +$15 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $190 $0 +0%
France vs. Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $131 +$28 +21%
France vs. Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $100 +$8 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $200 +$10 +5%
Iceland vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $201 −$200 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $162 −$55 -34%
Spread: Knicks (-22.5) Jun 09 $301 +$19 +6%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $600 +$2 +0%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $200 +$12 +6%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $195 +$1,669 +855%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 06 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Isack Hadjar get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $600 +$1 +0%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $100 +$17 +17%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $232 +$28 +12%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $200 +$15 +7%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $500 +$5 +1%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $201 +$29 +14%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $401 +$29 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $20 +$32 +158%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $20 +$27 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 94¢ $244 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 97¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $433 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $40 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $301 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $423 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $81 10h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $311 10h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $155 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $212 11h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $106 11h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 94¢ $200 11h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $401 12h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 92¢ $200 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $201 27h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $501 29h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $301 36h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 83¢ $201 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 95¢ $300 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $400 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $201 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $63 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $200 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $200 2d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 91¢ $257 3d
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 97¢ $300 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 3d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $301 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,847.51 · official $2,847.51 (match) · 3043 history records