Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8918…8f42
sports · 37 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$314 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$363 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$76
Realized−$363
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage101d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 4 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 76¢ 38¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 TheMongolz 2¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Legacy 45¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 B8 47¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 12? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Avanti Esport (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Group B Avanti Esport 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 B8 21¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Monte 21¢ 0¢ $326 $0 −$326 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $90 +$7 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$4 -43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $45 +$7 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 22 $31 +$15 +48%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 13 $46 +$14 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 12 $58 −$6 -11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $102 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $178 −$111 -62%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $108 +$34 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $176 +$60 +34%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Avanti Esport (BO1) - Parken Challenger Champ Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $153 +$29 +19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $72 −$26 -36%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 07 $49 −$2 -3%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $602 −$326 -54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $490 −$16 -3%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs FriendlyCampers (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Mar 07 $5 −$3 -60%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $110 +$50 +46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 07 $194 −$12 -6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Sta Mar 07 $99 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $62 +$35 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $99 +$36 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$355
finance 13% +$32
crypto 5% −$49
other 4% +$2
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $97 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 92¢ $90 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. E BUY 10¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $20 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 15¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 36¢ $6 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 61¢ $10 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A BUY Vitality 86¢ $45 48d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Vitality 67¢ $31 56d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff BUY Legacy 45¢ $61 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL Yes 13¢ $60 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $48 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? SELL Yes 23¢ $52 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY Yes 26¢ $58 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL Yes 75¢ $111 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 98d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY TheMongolz 0¢ $1 98d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY TheMongolz 4¢ $20 98d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 SELL Legacy 100¢ $143 98d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY TheMongolz 5¢ $11 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.8% -7.0% 80% 40% -3.7%
≤30d 5 +2.8% -7.0% 80% 40% -3.7%
≤90d 7 +11.0% +0.4% 86% 57% +2.2%
all 31 -17.8% -25.6% 52% 42% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 42% -19.3%
10% -32.7% 26% -27.1%
15% -39.2% 13% -34.1%
20% -45.2% 3% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.39 · official $91.81 · 75 history records