Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x891a…b9dc other 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 22% −$19
politics 9% −$8
crypto 8% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$7
world 5% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage139d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $278 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $796 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $358 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $670 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $215 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $306 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $301 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $280 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 3h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 14h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 15h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 19h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 21h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 23h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 24h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 26h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 27h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 29h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 30h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 31h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 36h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 37h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 39h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 40h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 43h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 45h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.41 · official $56.41 (match) · 1404 history records