Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x891a…2349 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$7
other 21% $0
politics 6% +$1
tech 3% $0
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 38 -0.9% -10.4% 29% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage474d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 −$2 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $23 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $80 −$3 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $7 $0 +4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 24 $4 $0 +7%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 04 $2 $0 -16%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $14 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $38 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 13h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 21h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $26 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $23 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $25 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $11 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records