Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x891a…237a crypto 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-2%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate66%115W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$679
7 days−$700
14 days−$729
30 days−$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$106
sports 42% −$671
other 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -29.9% -36.6% 52% 16% -11.5%
≤30d 146 -8.8% -17.5% 68% 32% -11.7%
≤90d 174 -11.6% -20.0% 66% 30% -12.6%
all 174 -11.6% -20.0% 66% 30% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 30% -12.6%
10% -27.7% 17% -21.0%
15% -34.6% 11% -28.6%
20% -41.1% 7% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses115 / 59
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage52d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $50 +$2 +5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $339 +$3 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $325 +$4 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $939 −$681 -72%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $50 −$11 -21%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$32 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $110 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $111 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $342 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $14 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $329 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 779 history records