Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x891c…7691 politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$1
world 23% −$5
other 10% $0
crypto 9% $0
economics 9% $0
tech 9% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 3% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 7 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 0% -11.6%
all 36 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage305d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $31 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $28 −$4 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on August 21 Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 22? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 21 $3 $0 +10%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? Aug 19 $43 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Aug 18 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 16h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $26 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $29 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $7 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $35 25d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $41 299d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? SELL No 98¢ $3 299d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $41 299d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $42 299d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $42 300d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? SELL No 99¢ $41 300d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 99¢ $41 300d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 300d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $41 300d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $5 300d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $41 300d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records