Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x891d…dd26 sports 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 184d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,713 (+4%) realized +$11,262 · open +$451
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%152W / 108L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,213per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$2,774est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$21,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$1,035
14 days+$1,179
30 days+$13,391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$12,998
other 23% +$3,267
crypto 14% −$6,871
politics 0% +$202
world 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +34.8% +22.0% 80% 40% +7.1%
≤30d 58 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 55% +6.8%
≤90d 129 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 51% -1.1%
all 260 +5.2% -4.8% 58% 47% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 47% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 39% -15.7%
15% -22.2% 37% -23.8%
20% -29.8% 32% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,224) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$529 vs −$659 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$21,886
Realized+$11,262
Unrealized+$451
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses152 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$2,774
Open positions7
Markets (closed)260 / 267
History coverage185d ⚠
Avg bet$1,213
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,395 $9,080 +$1,685 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 81¢ $8,119 $7,965 −$154 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3,053 $3,071 +$18 (+1%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 38¢ $863 $899 +$36 (+4%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $989 $614 −$375 (-38%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $1,008 $248 −$760 (-75%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 93¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3,812 +$157 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $769 +$869 +113%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $1,020 $0 -0%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $332 +$73 +22%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $263 +$71 +27%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 15 $1,224 −$962 -79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,440 +$3,260 +134%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $875 −$875 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $174 +$26 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,582 −$770 -49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $810 −$810 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $372 +$388 +104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $106 +$44 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $802 +$867 +108%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $753 +$47 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $664 +$135 +20%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $215 +$296 +138%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $442 +$158 +36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $442 +$158 +36%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $328 +$271 +82%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $344 +$56 +16%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $316 +$320 +101%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $546 +$53 +10%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $825 +$673 +82%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,368 +$130 +10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $938 −$938 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,049 +$1,049 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $588 −$588 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $2,254 +$93 +4%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $177 +$91 +52%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $136 +$102 +75%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $637 +$362 +57%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $3,159 +$763 +24%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $1,285 −$1,285 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $1,424 −$1,102 -77%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 07 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Game Handicap: FLY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 07 $55 +$9 +16%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,468 +$1,032 +70%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $2,009 +$239 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,008 +$397 +39%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $12,046 +$7,117 +59%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $9,357 +$5,341 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $27 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 63¢ $16 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $14 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1,997 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,185 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 34h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $3 46h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $164 2d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $20 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $58 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $150 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $466 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $280 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $426 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $293 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $259 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $92 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,886.14 · official $21,886.14 (match) · 3500 history records