Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x891f…6ad4 crypto 9 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+8%) realized −$94 · open +$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$154
crypto 33% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.4% -25.2% 50% 50% -8.1%
≤30d 8 -17.4% -25.2% 50% 50% -8.1%
≤90d 8 -17.4% -25.2% 50% 50% -8.1%
all 8 -17.4% -25.2% 50% 50% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 50% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 25% -16.9%
15% -38.9% 25% -25.0%
20% -44.9% 12% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$649
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$154
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 64¢ 84¢ $495 $649 +$154 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$18 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $157 +$27 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $649.42 · official $649.42 (match) · 36 history records