Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
89 0x8922…3284 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$709 (+14%) realized +$975 · open −$266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$923now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$31
14 days−$10
30 days+$3,045
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$2,164
sports 22% +$3,043
politics 13% −$180
world 12% +$6
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +42.8% +29.2% 71% 71% +29.8%
≤30d 10 +130.4% +108.4% 70% 70% +626.5%
≤90d 10 +130.4% +108.4% 70% 70% +626.5%
all 20 +49.0% +34.8% 60% 35% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.8% 35% +13.5%
10% +21.9% 35% +2.6%
15% +10.1% 35% -7.3%
20% -0.7% 35% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +703% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +130% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$272 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$923
Realized+$975
Unrealized−$266
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions20
Markets (closed)20 / 40
History coverage173d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $357 $262 −$95 (-27%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $353 $183 −$170 (-48%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $41 $46 +$4 (+10%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 51¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 46¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 38¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 45¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $302 +$3,055 +1011%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 20 $50 −$19 -38%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $210 +$4 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 11 $297 +$5 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $297 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 16 $229 +$9 +4%
US bank failure by February 28? Jan 19 $110 −$2 -1%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 28 $2,022 −$2,022 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $43 47h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $8 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $161 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 12¢ $31 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 12¢ $21 11d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 14d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $10 14d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 14d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 14d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $922.96 · official $923.83 (match) · 91 history records