Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8924…c8d2 other 377 markets active 2h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,931 (-9%) realized −$1,931 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%157W / 213L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$87
14 days−$87
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$829
world 18% −$719
politics 9% +$53
sports 9% +$29
finance 7% −$241
tech 6% +$26
crypto 4% −$165
economics 2% −$52
weather 1% −$60
culture 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 33% -40.0%
≤30d 13 -12.5% -20.8% 31% 15% -24.9%
≤90d 161 -63.9% -67.4% 13% 8% -42.0%
all 370 -20.8% -28.3% 42% 26% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 26% -18.3%
10% -35.2% 18% -26.1%
15% -41.4% 12% -33.3%
20% -47.2% 9% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$1,931
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses157 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)370 / 377
History coverage583d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $59 −$4 -7%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $26 −$4 -16%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $26 +$49 +191%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $55 −$3 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $234 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $64 −$48 -75%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? May 31 $97 −$33 -34%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $3 $0 -15%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? May 28 $41 −$6 -14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 28 $415 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 13 $30 −$4 -14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 13 $1,025 −$216 -21%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13? May 12 $31 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11? May 11 $8 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11? May 11 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12? May 10 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10? May 10 $51 −$10 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10? May 10 $42 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 09 $70 −$31 -44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 08 $98 −$24 -25%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $31 −$3 -11%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 08 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 08 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 1? May 01 $52 −$50 -96%
Pump.fun revenue above $25M in April? May 01 $240 −$99 -41%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $49 −$49 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 29 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference? Apr 29 $30 +$7 +23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 28 $785 −$108 -14%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 28 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? Apr 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sign an executive order today? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $420 −$25 -6%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $25 +$59 +238%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $54 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $75 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 19d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $52 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 19d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $59 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $104 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $217 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $52 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $21 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.61 · official $100.62 (match) · 1050 history records