Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8925…d65e crypto 1287 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate77%994W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day92.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$19
other 3% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 417 +3.0% -6.8% 83% 77% -6.3%
≤30d 1286 -1.1% -10.5% 77% 68% -9.0%
≤90d 1286 -1.1% -10.5% 77% 68% -9.0%
all 1286 -1.1% -10.5% 77% 68% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 68% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 41% -17.7%
15% -26.9% 18% -25.7%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses994 / 292
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1286 / 1287
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day92.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 69¢ 82¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.15 · official $5.30 (match) · 2406 history records