Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
89 0x892b…6fb9 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,786 (+19%) realized +$1,892 · open −$106
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day38.4pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$46
other 33% +$2,626
finance 17% −$14
world 13% +$116
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +57.3% +42.3% 43% 39% +28.6%
≤30d 23 +57.3% +42.3% 43% 39% +28.6%
≤90d 23 +57.3% +42.3% 43% 39% +28.6%
all 23 +57.3% +42.3% 43% 39% +28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.3% 39% +28.6%
10% ← realistic here +28.7% 39% +16.3%
15% +16.2% 39% +5.0%
20% +4.8% 26% -5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +109% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$447 vs −$132 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2,204
Realized+$1,892
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day38.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 28¢ $840 $825 −$15 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $660 $644 −$16 (-2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 49¢ 44¢ $490 $435 −$55 (-11%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes $320 $300 −$20 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,236 +$1,764 +143%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $358 +$142 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $316 +$132 +42%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 17 $216 −$210 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $342 −$336 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $415 −$405 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $438 −$432 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $115 +$1,285 +1116%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $104 +$46 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $245 +$755 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $117 +$133 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $118 −$115 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,607 −$14 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $210 +$190 +91%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$20 +67%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $226 −$14 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $336 −$7 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $140 −$38 -27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $172 −$14 -8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $329 34m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $497 37m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $676 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $858 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $316 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $652 4h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Ghana $216 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $209 5h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $195 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $417 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $215 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $107 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $167 6h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $117 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $104 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $58 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $58 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $118 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $219 9h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $103 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $134 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $245 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $143 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $111 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $117 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 57¢ $3 46h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 55¢ $1,506 46h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 55¢ $83 46h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 54¢ $3 46h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 54¢ $80 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,203.50 · official $2,203.50 (match) · 115 history records