Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x892b…ec5e crypto 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 646d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate91%106W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$20
crypto 39% +$15
other 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$3
world 0% −$14
sports 0% −$5
finance 0% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 116 -2.4% -11.7% 91% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 14% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 7% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 4% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

646d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses106 / 10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)116 / 122
History coverage646d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 81¢ 93¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 25 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $98 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $4 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 29 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 22? May 23 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 21 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 18 $142 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Apr 29 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? Apr 18 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 3? Apr 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? Mar 31 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 24? Mar 25 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 16? Mar 18 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 16 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 9 Feb 09 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $144 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3? Feb 05 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on January 26? Jan 26 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $104,000 on January 23? Jan 24 $143 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $93 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $91 8d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $4 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $4 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $102 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $98 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $134 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $139 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $138 38d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 97¢ $4 39d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $142 42d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 63d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $147 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $146 75d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $151 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $147 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $150 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $139 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $141 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $143 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $143 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $140 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $146 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.76 · official $104.76 (match) · 276 history records