Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x892c…5b27
weather · 57 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$33 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open −$54
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage78d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 4 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 61¢ 18¢ $33 $10 −$23 (-70%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Natus Vincere 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 5? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 +$8 +63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$52 +164%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $22 +$12 +55%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$5 +89%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $7 +$7 +99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 4? Apr 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 4? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 5? Apr 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 04 $6 +$8 +131%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 03 $4 +$9 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4? Apr 03 $5 +$4 +75%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Apr 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 2? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on April 2? Apr 03 $7 +$13 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 2? Apr 02 $12 −$5 -42%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 02 $4 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Monte (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ap Apr 01 $9 −$8 -84%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pla Apr 01 $15 +$12 +82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Apr 01 $5 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 01 $9 +$11 +118%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 1? Apr 01 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 1? Apr 01 $4 +$13 +326%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 1? Apr 01 $8 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 1? Apr 01 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on Mar Mar 31 $10 +$11 +121%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Mar 31 $4 +$5 +122%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma Mar 30 $13 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Marc Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Mar 30 $12 +$28 +232%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Mar 29 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on March 29 Mar 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 28 $8 +$16 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on Marc Mar 28 $4 −$3 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 27? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 28 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on March 27? Mar 27 $1 $0 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% −$49
weather 43% −$22
other 9% +$36
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $34 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $12 3h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $12 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $24 21h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $1 22h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $9 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $34 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $22 27h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 28h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $10 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 75¢ $4 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 75¢ $4 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 29h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $15 30h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $4 31h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $4 32h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $7 40h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 5? BUY Yes 57¢ $0 68d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 5? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 68d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 5? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 68d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $10 68d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $5 69d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage SELL PARIVISION 99¢ $15 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +14.9% +4.0% 60% 60% +32.3%
≤30d 10 +14.9% +4.0% 60% 60% +32.3%
≤90d 53 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 38% -5.3%
all 53 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 38% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 38% -5.3%
10% -18.0% 36% -14.4%
15% -25.9% 34% -22.6%
20% -33.2% 34% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.88 · official $21.88 (match) · 185 history records