Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
89 0x8931…0627 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$82 (+4%) realized +$367 · open −$285
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$50
14 days+$166
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$33
other 7% −$16
politics 5% +$3
finance 5% +$12
culture 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 50% -31.3%
≤30d 9 +26.1% +14.1% 78% 67% +13.4%
≤90d 9 +26.1% +14.1% 78% 67% +13.4%
all 9 +26.1% +14.1% 78% 67% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 67% +13.4%
10% +3.2% 44% +2.5%
15% -6.8% 33% -7.4%
20% -15.9% 33% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$104 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized+$367
Unrealized−$285
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)9 / 21
History coverage49d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 76¢ 78¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 73¢ 71¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $96 $21 −$75 (-78%)
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? No 7¢ 4¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-46%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-93%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $86 $1 −$85 (-98%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 2¢ 0¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 24 $100 +$57 +57%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $172 −$107 -62%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $110 +$248 +225%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $76 +$7 +9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $70 +$61 +87%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$12 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 05 $150 +$19 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $150 +$47 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 48¢ $100 1h
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? BUY No 7¢ $31 1h
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary electio BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $157 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 12d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $83 12d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 22¢ $131 12d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 8¢ $100 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $100 12d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 12¢ $70 13d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $68 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $108 14d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 2¢ $30 15d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 3¢ $0 15d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 3¢ $30 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $80 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 15d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $38 18d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $92 18d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 18d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $1 18d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.16 · official $689.30 (match) · 47 history records