Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8931…a90c other 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$725 (+0%) realized +$390 · open +$335
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%11W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$9,660per market
Trades / day145.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$298,416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$290
other 17% +$220
world 11% +$56
finance 5% +$82
tech 2% +$33
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.5%
all 12 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$0 · ×355644.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3912091.93 per $1 lost it wins $3912091.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$298,416
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$335
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses11 / 1
Open positions103
Markets (closed)12 / 115
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9,660
Trades / day145.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 103 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $24,950 $24,988 +$38 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $21,472 $21,504 +$32 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $14,970 $14,992 +$22 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $14,955 $14,962 +$8 (+0%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $11,303 $11,325 +$21 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,980 $9,995 +$15 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,970 $9,995 +$25 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,980 $9,975 −$5 (-0%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $8,936 $9,013 +$77 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $7,162 $7,173 +$11 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,882 $6,886 +$4 (+0%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,175 $6,178 +$3 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $6,077 $6,102 +$25 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,995 $6,010 +$15 (+0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,760 $5,763 +$3 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,331 $5,334 +$3 (+0%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,171 $5,174 +$3 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,085 $5,093 +$8 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,007 $5,014 +$8 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,985 $4,998 +$12 (+0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,990 $4,998 +$8 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,971 $4,976 +$5 (+0%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $4,985 $4,932 −$52 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,885 $4,893 +$7 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,412 $4,420 +$8 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026? Jun 27 $4,135 +$4 +0%
Will 4 Anchors and Ilmeria Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 27 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 27 $2,230 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 26 $199,800 +$200 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 25 $14,341 +$43 +0%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $2,110 +$2 +0%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $3,192 +$3 +0%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5,754 +$9 +0%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $6,891 +$7 +0%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $24,502 +$24 +0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $52,106 +$52 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $500,001 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 11m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 19m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 19m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $0 33m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $0 33m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 46m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $0 51m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 54m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $4 57m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $750 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2,404 1h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $190 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $957 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $181 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $903 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $814 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $905 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $906 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $724 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $634 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $363 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $544 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $454 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $364 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $273 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $182 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $274 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $183 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298,416.33 · official $298,416.53 (match) · 777 history records