Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8931…a5e4 tech 1225 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,573 (-1%) realized −$1,517 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%1180W / 39L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$30
14 days+$63
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$669
tech 26% −$1,653
other 24% +$87
finance 15% −$1,029
world 1% +$27
sports 1% +$15
politics 0% +$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 119 -2.4% -11.7% 95% 1% -10.4%
≤90d 387 -3.9% -13.1% 93% 3% -16.6%
all 1219 -0.0% -9.6% 97% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -10.1%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$179 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$591
Realized−$1,517
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1180 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1219 / 1225
History coverage180d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $297 $287 −$10 (-3%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 22? No 99¢ 96¢ $198 $191 −$7 (-4%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 22? Yes 85¢ 64¢ $64 $48 −$16 (-25%)
Will Meta (META) close above $550 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 72¢ $55 $40 −$15 (-27%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 72¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 18 $233 +$2 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $211 +$4 +2%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $115 +$3 +3%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $109 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 17? Jun 17 $125 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 17? Jun 17 $54 +$1 +1%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 16? Jun 16 $194 +$3 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 16? Jun 16 $76 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? Jun 15 $209 +$2 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 13 $192 +$6 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $219 +$9 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $270 +$14 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $69 +$4 +5%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $660? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 11? Jun 11 $154 +$1 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 10? Jun 11 $28 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 10? Jun 11 $37 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 10? Jun 11 $109 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 10? Jun 11 $109 +$1 +1%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $242 +$3 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 9? Jun 10 $260 +$3 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 8? Jun 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on June 8? Jun 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $620 on June 8? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 8? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on June 8? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 on June 8? Jun 09 $25 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 on June 8? Jun 09 $69 +$2 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 8? Jun 09 $119 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 5? Jun 05 $51 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 5? Jun 05 $83 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $197 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta (META) close above $550 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 22? BUY Yes 85¢ $64 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $297 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 15 2 BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 15 2 BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 99¢ $109 3d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 97¢ $115 4d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 15 2 BUY No 99¢ $233 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $196 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $125 4d
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 99¢ $297 5d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 5d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $54 5d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 6d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $76 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $49 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $49 6d
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $65 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $96 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $36 6d
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 96¢ $34 6d
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $14 7d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 7d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 7d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $297 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.60 · official $590.60 (match) · 3329 history records