Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8932…eb14 world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,603 (+42%) realized +$13,270 · open −$667
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 57L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,323
7 days+$8,803
14 days+$9,555
30 days+$8,724
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$13,598
sports 31% −$552
other 7% −$796
finance 2% −$347
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +42.9% +29.3% 36% 32% +72.6%
≤30d 37 +6.1% -4.0% 30% 27% +47.8%
≤90d 37 +6.1% -4.0% 30% 27% +47.8%
all 81 -11.9% -20.3% 30% 28% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 28% +31.6%
10% -27.9% 26% +19.0%
15% -34.9% 23% +7.5%
20% -41.3% 21% -3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +45% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$909 vs −$162 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$13,270
Unrealized−$667
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage164d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 18¢ $1,000 $333 −$667 (-67%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 43¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $201 +$121 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $221 +$630 +285%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $413 +$907 +220%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 19 $699 −$334 -48%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 19 $365 −$255 -70%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 18 $273 −$136 -50%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $988 −$43 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $160 −$14 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $630 −$14 -2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $135 −$73 -54%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $326 −$115 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $870 −$240 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $300 −$148 -49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $65 −$28 -43%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $108 +$47 +43%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $200 −$76 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,215 +$3,256 +268%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $260 −$42 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $850 +$4,587 +540%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,237 +$851 +69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $137 −$20 -14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $207 −$8 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $220 +$38 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $39 −$13 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $711 +$772 +109%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $52 −$51 -97%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $399 −$388 -98%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $51 −$51 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $198 −$198 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 24 $1,258 +$188 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $517 −$41 -8%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats Mar 20 $74 −$73 -100%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers Mar 20 $800 −$798 -100%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $293 −$293 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 20 $419 +$552 +132%
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars Mar 19 $314 −$312 -100%
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Mar 19 $185 −$184 -100%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $219 −$219 -100%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Mar 19 $337 +$863 +256%
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Mar 10 $318 −$317 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 08 $65 −$65 -100%
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 08 $300 +$104 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $322 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $99 18h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $89 18h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $112 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $121 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,320 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $197 39h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $197 40h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $110 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $110 45h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $106 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $106 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 52¢ $136 3d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 11¢ $136 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $18 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 3d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $18 3d
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL Yes 23¢ $18 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $9 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $39 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 39¢ $409 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $134 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $146 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 39¢ $154 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.64 · official $332.64 (match) · 571 history records