Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8932…1cc4 crypto 1416 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,599 (-11%) realized −$1,598 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%815W / 599L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day53.5pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days−$58
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$86
crypto 27% −$110
other 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 877 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 49% -10.6%
≤30d 1194 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 53% -10.1%
≤90d 1414 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 54% -9.8%
all 1414 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 54% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 54% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 43% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 37% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 33% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,598
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses815 / 599
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1414 / 1416
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day53.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 37¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +104%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +150%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $25 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +89%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 +$21 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 49m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 86¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 78¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.12 · official $4.26 (match) · 3500 history records