Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8934…17c9
other · 31 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$12
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)20 / 31
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%
Chart Positions 11 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 58¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 65¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Yes 94¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Yes 76¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3 $0 +16%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1 $0 +13%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1 $0 +24%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1 $0 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 03 $1 $0 +17%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% +$1
crypto 9% −$1
sports 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 6d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 9d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $1 11d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 65¢ $1 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 11d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 18d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 18d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 18d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 18d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 18d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +24.8% +12.9% 100% 100% +11.8%
≤30d 20 -12.6% -21.0% 70% 70% -18.5%
≤90d 20 -12.6% -21.0% 70% 70% -18.5%
all 20 -12.6% -21.0% 70% 70% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 70% -18.5%
10% -28.5% 30% -26.3%
15% -35.4% 10% -33.5%
20% -41.8% 5% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.08 · official $12.09 (match) · 48 history records