Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x8934…afb3 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,760 (+18%) realized +$1,734 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 27L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$43
14 days+$109
30 days+$1,729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,635
other 2% +$157
crypto 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.5% -0.9% 67% 67% +9.8%
≤30d 27 +30.9% +18.4% 56% 56% +45.1%
≤90d 46 +11.1% +0.5% 54% 52% +11.4%
all 62 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 53% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 53% +8.9%
10% -13.2% 45% -1.6%
15% -21.6% 37% -11.1%
20% -29.3% 32% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$82 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$1,734
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 27
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage108d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 66¢ 85¢ $88 $114 +$26 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 +$39 +76%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$66 +130%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $251 +$45 +18%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $37 −$37 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $299 +$238 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $254 −$250 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $101 +$67 +66%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $153 +$326 +213%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $221 +$38 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $300 +$544 +182%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $100 −$98 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $51 +$282 +550%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 01 $51 +$105 +206%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $305 +$393 +129%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $298 +$63 +21%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $101 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $298 +$100 +34%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1,171 −$30 -3%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $501 +$37 +7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $159 −$155 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $300 +$211 +70%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $799 +$348 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $143 −$141 -99%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $61 +$101 +165%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $41 +$21 +50%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $212 −$209 -99%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $167 +$46 +27%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $131 +$36 +27%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $100 +$31 +31%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $100 −$98 -98%
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5 Mar 18 $182 −$182 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5 Mar 18 $137 +$24 +18%
Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5 Mar 18 $248 −$228 -92%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 18 $251 +$135 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $89 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $49 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria wi BUY 23¢ $51 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu BUY 23¢ $31 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 43¢ $51 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 22¢ $12 11d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 16d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 65¢ $66 16d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $37 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $299 19d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $251 20d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 35¢ $102 21d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $152 21d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 29¢ $102 22d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 59¢ $101 23d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 30¢ $51 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $51 24d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $102 24d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $259 24d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 85¢ $221 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $9 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 25d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $96 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.92 · official $113.92 (match) · 143 history records