Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8935…745c crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 693d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$546 (-6%) realized −$433 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%39W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$70
14 days+$90
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$734
other 5% −$8
politics 4% +$268
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$6
finance 1% −$21
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -24.0% -31.2% 38% 29% +0.6%
≤30d 66 -9.1% -17.7% 45% 32% -1.9%
≤90d 66 -9.1% -17.7% 45% 32% -1.9%
all 87 -3.5% -12.7% 45% 33% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 33% -13.3%
10% -21.1% 28% -21.6%
15% -28.7% 23% -29.2%
20% -35.7% 18% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$43 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

693d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$433
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses39 / 48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage693d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 74¢ 62¢ $74 $62 −$11 (-15%)
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 47¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 6¢ $109 $15 −$94 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +113%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $38 +$6 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $168 +$35 +21%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $20 +$25 +125%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $17 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $262 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 07 $308 +$4 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $181 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$8 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$3 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$3 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$3 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$3 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $34 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $18 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $34 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $48 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 11h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 12h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $8 13h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $66 16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $3 17h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.44 · official $120.44 (match) · 840 history records