Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8935…d6fc crypto 1285 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$371 (-3%) realized −$325 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate79%1008W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$40
14 days−$133
30 days−$1,883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$450
crypto 40% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 57% -16.6%
≤30d 375 -51.8% -56.4% 31% 25% -39.7%
≤90d 1282 -3.2% -12.4% 79% 26% -13.6%
all 1282 -3.2% -12.4% 79% 26% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 26% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 19% -21.9%
15% -28.4% 13% -29.4%
20% -35.5% 8% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$325
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1008 / 274
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1282 / 1285
History coverage60d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ 94¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+36%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 66¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $44 −$9 -21%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$8 +39%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$11 +70%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$10 -25%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$5 -53%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$1 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$18 -71%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$16 -51%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$10 -50%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$7 -35%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$5 +54%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $19 −$6 -33%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $18 +$1 +8%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$3 +20%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $14 +$2 +12%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$3 +30%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $35 −$17 -48%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$5 +27%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $39 −$10 -26%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$11 +43%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $20 +$4 +22%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$4 +13%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$7 +73%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $19 +$4 +19%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $18 +$2 +9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$3 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $9 15m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $8 43m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 74¢ $14 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $20 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $27 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $8 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 71¢ $24 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 75¢ $20 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $23 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $15 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $15 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $28 37h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 71¢ $20 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $26 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 49¢ $15 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 58¢ $15 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $22 44h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $20 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $20 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $22 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $24 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 89¢ $20 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 84¢ $20 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $42 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 75¢ $20 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 65¢ $10 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $10 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $25 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.96 · official $11.96 (match) · 2898 history records