Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8935…8271 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-11%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate67%66W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$7
other 24% −$19
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -11.1% -19.6% 67% 40% -22.3%
≤30d 99 -11.1% -19.6% 67% 40% -22.3%
≤90d 99 -11.1% -19.6% 67% 40% -22.3%
all 99 -11.1% -19.6% 67% 40% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 40% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 17% -29.7%
15% -34.3% 8% -36.5%
20% -40.7% 2% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses66 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -81%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records