Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8936…d010 other 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,657 (-54%) realized −$18,639 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate55%130W / 106L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 35% −$243
other 34% −$470
tech 14% +$355
world 6% −$104
sports 6% $0
politics 5% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -86.7% -88.0% 12% 0% -38.3%
≤30d 16 -53.5% -57.9% 31% 6% -32.4%
≤90d 20 -23.7% -31.0% 45% 15% -30.4%
all 236 +24.7% +12.8% 55% 31% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.8% 31% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here +2.0% 21% -18.9%
15% -7.8% 16% -26.7%
20% -16.9% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$27 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$18,639
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses130 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$146
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+92%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? No 85¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 33¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 33¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mario Enrique Severich win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial elec Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alejandro Mostajo Rueda win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial ele Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Remigio Ancalle win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juan Carlos Medrano win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial electio Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ruth Alina Peralta win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $643 +$41 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $260 −$260 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $880 −$217 -25%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2,300 −$542 -24%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 08 $92 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $124 −$2 -2%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Jun 01 $656 +$40 +6%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $5 +$1 +24%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $296 +$11 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 18 $604 +$33 +6%
Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial ele Apr 29 $17 +$31 +184%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-01-26? Apr 07 $11 +$1 +5%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-01-26? Apr 07 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? Mar 23 $16 +$31 +187%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and Mar 13 $2 +$1 +21%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and Mar 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%? Mar 11 $53 +$13 +24%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and Mar 11 $0 +$1 +400%
Will Wydad Athletic Club vs. AS FAR end in a draw? Mar 11 $23 +$1 +3%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-01-26? Mar 11 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-01-26? Mar 10 $64 +$2 +4%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-02-07? Mar 10 $160 +$21 +13%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-02-07? Mar 10 $277 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $609 +$28 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 09 $91 +$46 +50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 06 $686 −$4 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 06 $488 −$4 -1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $93 +$33 +35%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 04 $153 +$1 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 04 $234 +$7 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 03 $306 −$47 -15%
Antalya 2: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Nuria Brancaccio Mar 03 $116 +$84 +72%
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 2? Mar 02 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6? Mar 02 $85 −$48 -56%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 02 $774 +$35 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 02 $861 +$16 +2%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 02 $103 −$15 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? Mar 02 $374 −$18 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 02 $153 +$4 +3%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5? Mar 02 $27 −$9 -35%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 02 $64 −$18 -28%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? Mar 02 $111 −$19 -17%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 02 $22 −$3 -13%
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 3? Mar 02 $47 −$28 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 18m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 57m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $25 13h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 14h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 5¢ $32 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.30 · official $86.28 (match) · 3500 history records