Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8938…41ef other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 27% +$2
politics 14% −$7
sports 7% −$1
crypto 7% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.7%
all 47 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 6% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 6% -10.4%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage465d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Estonia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 11 $6 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador May 05 $6 $0 +4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 21 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $19 $0 +2%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $17 +$2 +12%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $25 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $25 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $26 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $10 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $18 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $28 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $16 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $11 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 12d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL No 99¢ $3 329d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.68 · official $26.68 (match) · 122 history records