Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8939…d381 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% $0
other 20% −$4
politics 19% $0
sports 10% +$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.6%
all 53 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage282d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $30 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $15 −$1 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $28 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 02 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 16 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Jeremy Allen White win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a C Sep 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Sep 13 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 14m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 14m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $26 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $26 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $29 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $29 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $27 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $10 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $18 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $7 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $8 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 74¢ $28 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 75¢ $28 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $14 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $15 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $29 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $2 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $2 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $6 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records