Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x893b…e888 sports 72 markets active 18h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,000 (+54%) realized +$2,000 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%37W / 34L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days−$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$2,000
politics 37% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 67% +0.4%
≤30d 28 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 57% -9.4%
≤90d 69 -6.0% -14.9% 51% 51% -8.5%
all 71 -3.0% -12.3% 52% 52% +39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 52% +39.2%
10% -20.7% 52% +25.9%
15% -28.3% 51% +13.7%
20% -35.4% 42% +2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 93% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +54% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$4 · ×14.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.18 per $1 lost it wins $16.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2,000
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses37 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage96d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 23 $3 +$2 +56%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $3 +$2 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +72%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +44%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +104%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +65%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $4 +$2 +68%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 06 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +70%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 03 $4 +$1 +34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 01 $4 +$1 +40%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $3 +$2 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 29 $2 +$3 +144%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $7 +$3 +43%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 25 $2 +$3 +117%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 24 $2 +$3 +122%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 24 $4 +$1 +38%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 12 $6 +$3 +41%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5 May 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Magic vs. Pistons May 12 $7 +$4 +67%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 12 $6 +$6 +88%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 May 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 May 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 01 $4 +$3 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 62¢ $3 18h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 64¢ $3 41h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 69¢ $3 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $3 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 9d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $3 10d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 60¢ $3 11d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 12d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 59¢ $3 13d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 58¢ $1 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,378 15d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 16d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 17d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $3 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 20d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 74¢ $4 21d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 23d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 24d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $1 25d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $2 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 27d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Thunder 70¢ $7 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.08 · official $3.08 (match) · 188 history records