Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x893b…b1b4 crypto 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,569 (-35%) realized −$18,586 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%31W / 144L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$363
14 days−$1,336
30 days−$1,480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$5,232
other 29% −$8,283
sports 13% −$6,481
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -79.0% -81.0% 7% 7% -88.0%
≤30d 26 -81.7% -83.4% 8% 8% -94.5%
≤90d 97 -74.2% -76.6% 11% 11% -46.8%
all 175 -46.5% -51.6% 18% 18% -45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 18% -45.6%
10% -56.2% 17% -50.8%
15% -60.4% 17% -55.6%
20% -64.3% 17% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$544 vs −$256 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$18,586
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses31 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions2
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage181d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 31¢ 50¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 45¢ 50¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$1 -7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $64 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 −$63 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$18 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $176 −$169 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $168 −$161 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $416 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6AM ET May 25 $109 −$103 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 25 $81 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 25 $56 −$21 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 25 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $238 −$232 -98%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) May 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $109 −$106 -97%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata May 18 $3,059 −$2,980 -97%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $1,248 −$1,217 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9AM ET May 18 $748 −$705 -94%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,504 −$2,439 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1PM ET May 17 $1,392 +$2,330 +167%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,997 −$1,944 -97%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3,487 −$3,406 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2PM ET May 16 $711 −$686 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12PM ET May 16 $3,997 +$4,364 +109%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $993 −$969 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $997 −$973 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $999 +$151 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET May 15 $562 −$530 -94%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $2,396 −$2,341 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,594 +$3,299 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 05 $771 +$822 +107%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $347 −$338 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $336 −$328 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $91 −$89 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $78 −$76 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 10 $147 −$138 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $16 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $17 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 16¢ $30 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $65 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $30 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $41 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $41 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $22 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $176 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $168 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $151 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.76 · official $55.76 (match) · 467 history records