Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x893b…0c5b crypto 499 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,513 (+1%) realized +$1,553 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%470W / 28L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day124.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$384
14 days+$1,035
30 days+$1,035
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$995
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 429 +0.5% -9.0% 94% 6% -9.2%
≤30d 498 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 498 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 6% -8.7%
all 498 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 6% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$152 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$1,553
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses470 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)498 / 499
History coverage8d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day124.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 92¢ 70¢ $170 $130 −$40 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $167 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$65 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $167 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $383 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $255 +$26 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $167 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $167 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $255 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $107 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $169 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $127 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $192 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $145 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $255 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $256 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $256 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $255 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $255 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $510 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $128 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $256 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $167 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $255 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $255 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $253 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $170 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $161 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $170 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $170 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $167 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $85 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $19 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $83 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $383 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $169 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $236 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $167 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $167 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $170 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $170 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $255 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $55 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $169 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $127 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $169 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $192 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $170 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $159 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $157 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $13 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.52 · official $96.45 · 1456 history records