Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x893d…da13 crypto 1013 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,396 (-180%) realized −$4,396 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%394W / 1066L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day139.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,225
7 days−$2,373
14 days−$2,666
30 days−$2,666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 746 -64.8% -68.2% 19% 19% -70.6%
≤30d 1460 -41.3% -46.9% 27% 24% -48.2%
≤90d 1460 -41.3% -46.9% 27% 24% -48.2%
all 1460 -41.3% -46.9% 27% 24% -48.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.9% 24% -48.2%
10% ← realistic here -52.0% 23% -53.2%
15% -56.6% 22% -57.7%
20% -60.9% 20% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$4,396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses394 / 1066
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1460 / 1013
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day139.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1460 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +276%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +670%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +244%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +406%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$8 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$9 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$18 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$7 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.41 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records