Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
89 0x8944…7b42 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$186 (+4%) realized +$137 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate76%38W / 12L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$22
14 days−$87
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$298
politics 23% −$174
other 11% −$7
sports 3% +$23
world 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 67% -12.6%
≤30d 29 +12.6% +1.8% 69% 62% -6.1%
≤90d 48 +13.0% +2.2% 75% 62% -6.5%
all 50 +12.7% +2.0% 76% 62% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 62% -6.5%
10% -7.8% 40% -15.4%
15% -16.7% 28% -23.6%
20% -24.9% 18% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$37 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$1,366
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses38 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)50 / 77
History coverage118d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 78¢ 99¢ $312 $397 +$85 (+27%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $189 $203 +$14 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 85¢ 84¢ $162 $160 −$3 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $139 $144 +$6 (+4%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 92¢ $136 $134 −$2 (-2%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 97¢ $77 $87 +$10 (+12%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 87¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 22-28? No 85¢ 96¢ $42 $48 +$6 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Yes 49¢ 18¢ $83 $30 −$53 (-63%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 92¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+81%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 30¢ $28 $12 −$16 (-58%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 76¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+44%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-46%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? Jun 23 $31 +$69 +218%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $22 +$8 +35%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $288 −$148 -51%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 22 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 20 $37 +$11 +31%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $32 +$8 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $184 +$38 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -81%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $8 +$12 +166%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$16 +155%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $269 +$27 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 10 $143 −$121 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $87 +$13 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $37 +$13 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $144 +$17 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $16 +$4 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $18 +$12 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $62 +$8 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $425 +$75 +18%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $111 +$40 +36%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $28 −$12 -45%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $141 −$108 -77%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? May 21 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 17 $89 +$9 +11%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $27 −$24 -89%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $96 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $77 +$23 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 01 $44 +$5 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $290 +$8 +3%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $226 +$13 +6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $58 +$6 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26? Apr 24 $58 +$5 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 19 $72 +$10 +14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $37 +$37 +102%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $9 −$9 -91%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $41 +$9 +21%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +120%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $9 +$5 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $86 +$31 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $39 +$10 +27%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $136 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 26h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 27h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 22-28? BUY No 85¢ $43 29h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $97 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 30h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $2 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 33h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro SELL Yes 83¢ $16 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL No 94¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 72¢ $33 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 72¢ $4 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $19 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $83 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $9 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 81¢ $41 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $22 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 74¢ $122 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 74¢ $94 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 6d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,366.38 · official $1,366.25 (match) · 299 history records