Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8948…28d5 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 559d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15,910 (-40%) realized −$14,271 · open −$1,639
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%11W / 77L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$270
7 days−$270
14 days−$1,287
30 days−$1,287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$7,421
other 26% +$1,761
politics 17% −$4,639
world 10% −$613
tech 9% −$3,822
economics 2% −$803
sports 1% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-55.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 23 -10.6% -19.1% 13% 13% -64.0%
≤90d 49 -53.3% -57.8% 8% 8% -87.0%
all 88 -50.5% -55.2% 12% 12% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.2% 12% -44.7%
10% -59.5% 12% -50.0%
15% -63.4% 11% -54.8%
20% -67.0% 11% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -53% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,006 vs −$325 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$1,744
Realized−$14,271
Unrealized−$1,639
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses11 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)88 / 99
History coverage559d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $537 $558 +$20 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $243 $265 +$22 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $865 $206 −$659 (-76%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $201 $206 +$4 (+2%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $230 $189 −$41 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $602 $129 −$473 (-79%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $309 $70 −$239 (-77%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $65 $64 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $47 −$4 (-8%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $280 $11 −$269 (-96%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$101 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $162 −$154 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $124 −$119 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $280 −$216 -77%
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $360 −$272 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $122 −$115 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $102 −$96 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $71 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $117 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $167 −$160 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $158 −$138 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $53 +$379 +713%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$38 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $23 +$171 +734%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 05 $30 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 05 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 05 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 05 $131 −$125 -96%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? May 07 $359 +$282 +79%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 03 $846 −$618 -73%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 03 $132 −$132 -100%
Starmer out before July? Apr 03 $480 −$480 -100%
Gold missing from Fort Knox? Apr 03 $452 −$452 -100%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Apr 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Apr 03 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German electio Apr 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Eric Adams a Republican before April? Apr 03 $297 −$297 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $1,899 −$1,899 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Apr 03 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files? Apr 03 $66 −$66 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Apr 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Apr 03 $655 −$655 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Apr 03 $770 −$764 -99%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 03 $1,274 −$1,274 -100%
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German electio Apr 03 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Apr 03 $253 −$253 -100%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 50% by March 31? Apr 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Apr 03 $479 −$479 -100%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 03 $175 −$133 -76%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Apr 03 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Apr 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Netanyahu out before April? Apr 03 $151 −$151 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Apr 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 19 $361 −$361 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $35 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,744.22 · official $1,745.05 (match) · 800 history records