Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
89 0x894c…03db crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,892 (+46%) realized +$6,891 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$552per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$150
14 days−$150
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$6,892
crypto 15% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +5.9% -4.2% 73% 68% -15.9%
≤30d 22 +5.9% -4.2% 73% 68% -15.9%
≤90d 22 +5.9% -4.2% 73% 68% -15.9%
all 26 +19.1% +7.7% 69% 65% +31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 65% +31.5%
10% -2.6% 42% +18.9%
15% -12.0% 27% +7.4%
20% -20.6% 15% -3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$524 vs −$337 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$6,891
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage115d
Avg bet$552
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 82¢ 50¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 44¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$26 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $113 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$79 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $102 −$48 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $303 +$46 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $7,817 −$1,773 -23%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 04 $2,000 +$406 +20%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $2,081 +$8,645 +415%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Feb 28 $832 −$386 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $22 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $45 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $44 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.83 · official $20.83 (match) · 149 history records