Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x894e…9629 politics 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,047 (-1%) realized −$1,047 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%30W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,225per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$44
30 days−$1,290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$74
other 37% −$222
sports 20% −$770
culture 2% −$3
world 1% +$4
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -9.5% -18.1% 11% 3% -12.1%
≤90d 99 -8.8% -17.5% 11% 5% -10.7%
all 142 +1.5% -8.1% 21% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 15% -10.1%
10% -16.9% 14% -18.7%
15% -25.0% 13% -26.5%
20% -32.3% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,605) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$20 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,047
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses30 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,225
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $642 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,155 −$4 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,904 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $754 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $306 +$2 +1%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $5,986 −$6 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,931 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,909 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,330 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $68 +$35 +52%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $827 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $45 −$45 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $853 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,213 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $123 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,888 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $4,657 −$5 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $224 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 21 $1,146 −$1,146 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $5,674 −$6 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,105 −$2 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $3,731 −$4 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $3,376 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 26 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3,047 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $214 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $215 3h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $641 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $642 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $797 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $799 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $741 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $742 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $836 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $837 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $827 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $828 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $747 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $748 4d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $753 5d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $754 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $306 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $767 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $768 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $795 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $796 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $645 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $646 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $890 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $891 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $807 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $808 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $666 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $667 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $974 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 497 history records