Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8956…81b1
crypto · 81 markets active 4h ago
3.5score
+$166 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$170 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
Chart Positions 2 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$133
14 days+$147
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 20¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 13¢ 12¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Fluxo W7M $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No 42¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $20 +$85 +414%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$9 +86%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $10 +$13 +131%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $645 +$79 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $122 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $61 +$3 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27? Mar 27 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$1 -8%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Mar 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $20 $0 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Mar 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 01 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 23 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 23 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will Tesla reach $608 in January? Feb 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jan 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Jan 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 9? Dec 10 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 9? Dec 10 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $240 in November? Dec 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 25? Nov 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 17? Nov 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 13? Nov 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on November 6? Nov 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 4? Nov 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 02 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 43% +$40
economics 25% −$4
other 16% +$79
politics 11% +$2
world 2% −$40
sports 2% +$91
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 13¢ $21 3h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 20¢ $20 3h
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Thiago Cigarran 19¢ $20 15h
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner SELL Fluxo W7M 85¢ $6 37h
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner SELL Fluxo W7M 85¢ $6 37h
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner SELL Fluxo W7M 85¢ $6 37h
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 45¢ $10 38h
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M $1 38h
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOUD 80¢ $9 38h
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOUD 80¢ $14 38h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 38h
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOUD 34¢ $10 38h
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $693 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 42¢ $42 4d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $31 7d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $16 7d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 7d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $10 7d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $55 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $9 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $108 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $44 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $12 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $12 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $12 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $10 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $8 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes $11 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +48.9% +34.7% 57% 57% +6.7%
≤30d 12 +30.0% +17.6% 58% 42% +3.4%
≤90d 20 +10.9% +0.3% 50% 25% +1.2%
all 79 +6.1% -4.0% 67% 24% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 24% -7.5%
10% -13.2% 8% -16.4%
15% -21.6% 4% -24.5%
20% -29.3% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.26 · official $36.26 (match) · 270 history records