Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x8956…755f sports 1133 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$649 (-0%) realized −$659 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%577W / 507L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days+$847
14 days+$937
30 days+$1,202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$2,543
politics 28% −$6,856
other 16% +$4,328
crypto 2% −$341
culture 1% −$18
tech 1% −$262
economics 1% −$218
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +48.3% +34.1% 59% 56% +25.2%
≤30d 195 +13.9% +3.0% 54% 52% +5.7%
≤90d 656 -1.2% -10.6% 53% 50% -11.0%
all 1084 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 49% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 49% -10.0%
10% -20.6% 45% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 41% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 36% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$59 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$1,909
Realized−$659
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses577 / 507
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions48
Markets (closed)1084 / 1133
History coverage320d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 1084 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $110 $119 +$9 (+8%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 75¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 75¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 75¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 43¢ 41¢ $82 $78 −$4 (-5%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 92¢ $33 $46 +$13 (+39%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 58¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 52¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$41 +134%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $34 +$26 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$32 +46%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$133 +1290%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$41 +134%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$39 +96%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $39 −$38 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $68 −$3 -5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +365%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $35 +$31 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 +$27 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $36 −$35 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$30 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$34 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$26 +62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $41 +$38 +93%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $30 +$30 +100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 +$43 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +7%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 +$31 +596%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 +$26 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$30 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 +$30 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$46 +180%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 1h
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $36 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $46 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $28 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $42 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $31 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $34 16h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $39 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $70 18h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $31 23h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $65 36h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $43 36h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $41 36h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $41 36h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 46¢ $25 36h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 36h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $41 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 36h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $28 41h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $30 41h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $36 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,908.68 · official $1,939.70 · 2822 history records