Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
89 0x8957…59f2 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$146 (-20%) realized −$150 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$302
sports 43% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -45.4%
≤30d 2 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -45.4%
≤90d 2 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -45.4%
all 2 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 50% -45.4%
10% -7.1% 50% -50.6%
15% -16.1% 50% -55.4%
20% -24.3% 50% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$295 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 50¢ 60¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 55¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants LG Twins 67¢ 61¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $106 +$127 +120%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $317 −$295 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 67¢ $105 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 50¢ $106 3h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 59¢ $105 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $23 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $106 11h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $106 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $211 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.42 · official $304.42 (match) · 8 history records