Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x895d…a454 sports 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$279 (-4%) realized −$303 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%76W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$444
14 days−$349
30 days−$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$263
other 24% −$144
world 3% +$87
crypto 1% −$9
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +2.5% -7.2% 57% 54% -20.3%
≤30d 100 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 50% -20.5%
≤90d 108 -2.5% -11.8% 56% 54% -16.4%
all 136 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 52% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 52% -14.7%
10% -21.0% 43% -22.8%
15% -28.6% 32% -30.3%
20% -35.6% 23% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$32 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$303
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses76 / 60
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions7
Markets (closed)136 / 143
History coverage420d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 85¢ 100¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 76¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+64%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 24¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $30 +$4 +13%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 +$10 +50%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $10 +$18 +172%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$21 +206%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 +$45 +442%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$9 +57%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $221 +$29 +13%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$11 +36%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $283 −$12 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $405 −$405 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +32%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $90 +$28 +31%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$17 +55%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 +$29 +29%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$49 +474%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$52 +510%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301 +$29 +10%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$9 +29%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$7 +32%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$7 -73%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 96¢ $1 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $100 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 62¢ $28 23h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $30 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 66¢ $20 23h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $10 25h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 53¢ $10 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $30 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $24 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 34h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $15 34h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 37h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $221 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 58¢ $272 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.90 · official $265.90 (match) · 292 history records