Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8960…3234 other 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$37
sports 25% −$21
politics 8% −$6
crypto 7% −$6
economics 6% −$9
culture 6% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage130d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $122 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $428 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $206 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $332 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $309 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $314 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $281 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $834 −$2 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $272 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $480 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $267 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $250 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $261 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $43 33m
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 6h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 7h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 8h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 9h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 11h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $43 13h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 17h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 19h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 20h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 21h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 29h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 32h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 33h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 36h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 37h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 39h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 40h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $43 42h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $44 43h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $43 45h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 47h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.52 · official $42.52 (match) · 1387 history records