Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
89 0x8960…a629 crypto 877 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$13,492 (+61%) realized +$13,481 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%441W / 436L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day71.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$6,457
other 23% −$856
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +43.9% +30.2% 42% 42% -17.2%
≤30d 595 +73.0% +56.5% 52% 52% +11.7%
≤90d 877 +65.1% +49.4% 50% 50% +12.5%
all 877 +65.1% +49.4% 50% 50% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.4% 50% +12.5%
10% ← realistic here +35.1% 50% +1.7%
15% +22.1% 50% -8.1%
20% +10.1% 50% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$28 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$13,481
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses441 / 436
Open positions1
Markets (closed)877 / 877
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day71.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 877 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 33¢ 50¢ $24 $35 +$11 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$1 +212%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$27 +1047%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$176 +590%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$17 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$45 +148%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$7 +252%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$47 +181%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$8 +490%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$44 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$4 +144%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$18 -51%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$26 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$23 +113%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$85 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$29 -92%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$31 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$37 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$37 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$42 +152%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +166%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$37 +110%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +117%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 7m
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $25 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $28 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.82 · official $34.99 · 3500 history records