Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x8961…64ce sports 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$312 (+3%) realized +$312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%109W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$454
14 days+$127
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$523
other 15% +$764
crypto 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 56% +0.7%
≤30d 185 +3.2% -6.6% 59% 57% -6.6%
≤90d 185 +3.2% -6.6% 59% 57% -6.6%
all 185 +3.2% -6.6% 59% 57% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 57% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 57% -15.6%
15% -23.7% 53% -23.7%
20% -31.2% 37% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$40 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses109 / 76
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage22d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$72 +71%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $121 +$74 +61%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$43 +71%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $40 +$23 +57%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $41 −$16 -41%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $102 +$108 +106%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $41 +$72 +175%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $162 +$138 +85%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $31 +$23 +74%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) Jun 19 $81 +$40 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $71 −$38 -53%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $91 +$98 +107%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$19 -47%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 +$52 +86%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$73 +72%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $61 +$48 +79%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$53 +52%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $60 +$19 +32%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $60 +$17 +28%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$67 +66%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $61 +$60 +99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $81 +$55 +68%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $172 +$118 +69%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$42 +69%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $162 +$59 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$81 +53%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $101 −$79 -78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 +$55 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$71 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $173 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $20 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 59¢ $20 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $20 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $41 3h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $20 9h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $40 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $196 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 41¢ $20 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 51¢ $20 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $40 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $20 14h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $63 14h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 31¢ $10 15h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 35¢ $24 15h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 99¢ $210 16h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 39¢ $20 17h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 45¢ $10 20h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 51¢ $6 21h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 53¢ $30 21h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 53¢ $20 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 677 history records