Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8963…de64 world 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,972 (-3%) realized −$2,558 · open −$414
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate55%137W / 111L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$506
14 days+$244
30 days−$3,536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$1,733
other 14% −$241
politics 7% −$805
sports 5% −$136
crypto 2% −$43
finance 2% −$129
culture 0% +$7
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.9% -19.4% 53% 33% +2.4%
≤30d 46 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 30% -20.1%
≤90d 114 +3.1% -6.7% 64% 38% -12.6%
all 248 +7.5% -2.8% 55% 32% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 32% -11.9%
10% -12.1% 18% -20.3%
15% -20.6% 11% -28.0%
20% -28.3% 8% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$99 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$2,567
Realized−$2,558
Unrealized−$414
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses137 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions13
Markets (closed)248 / 263
History coverage171d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,925 $1,632 −$293 (-15%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $472 $442 −$31 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $148 $130 −$18 (-12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $123 $114 −$8 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $56 $74 +$18 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+63%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $46 $33 −$13 (-29%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 6¢ $76 $27 −$49 (-64%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-60%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $49 +$7 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $370 +$27 +7%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $24 −$21 -88%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $382 +$130 +34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $253 +$14 +5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $130 −$77 -59%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $240 −$20 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 18 $8 −$2 -25%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $249 +$33 +13%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $306 +$54 +18%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,278 +$400 +31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $325 −$21 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $222 +$108 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $61 −$33 -54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $2,495 −$356 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $70 +$18 +26%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The Soulless Team vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetB Jun 05 $1 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $64 +$2 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 03 $40 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $762 −$240 -32%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2,220 +$255 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $1,722 −$636 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $225 −$35 -16%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $88 −$53 -60%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $71 +$25 +35%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 29 $536 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $2,553 −$1,430 -56%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $1,814 +$49 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $2,736 −$3 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $152 −$24 -16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 27 $3,040 −$1,347 -44%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 26 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $375 $0 +0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,216 −$561 -46%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 25 $240 +$118 +49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $889 +$185 +21%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $500 −$163 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $1,210 +$41 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 23 $332 +$5 +2%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 23 $1,308 +$144 +11%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 23 $578 +$94 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $774 −$213 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $705 −$169 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $632 +$40 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $1,513 +$153 +10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 20 $37 +$29 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 99¢ $56 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 87¢ $49 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Uruguay BUY 32¢ $33 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 85¢ $472 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $79 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $35 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $44 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $216 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $99 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $3 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $110 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $45 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 62¢ $225 43h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 44h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 56¢ $118 44h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 44h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $53 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $7 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 19¢ $66 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $78 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $142 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $77 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,566.61 · official $2,598.76 · 1421 history records