trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 17 | +11.7% | +1.0% | 82% | 24% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +1.0% | 24% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -8.6% | 18% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -17.5% | 12% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -25.6% | 12% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $47 | $47 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | Jun 21 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | May 13 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Mar 15 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 | Feb 26 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 | Feb 03 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? | Jan 12 | $11 | +$2 | +16% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Jan 12 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 | Dec 23 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? | Nov 15 | $2 | +$4 | +223% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? | Nov 15 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 | Oct 24 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 | Oct 24 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000? | Oct 24 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? | Oct 24 | $3 | +$4 | +122% |
| Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? | Oct 24 | $8 | +$3 | +35% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? | Oct 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 06 | $27,700 | −$28 | -0% |