Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
89 0x8965…9cdf other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,561per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$25
world 0% +$8
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 17 +11.7% +1.0% 82% 24% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 24% -9.6%
10% -8.6% 18% -18.2%
15% -17.5% 12% -26.1%
20% -25.6% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage258d
Avg bet$1,561
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? May 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Feb 03 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Jan 12 $11 +$2 +16%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Dec 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Nov 15 $2 +$4 +223%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Nov 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 24 $3 +$4 +122%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? Oct 24 $8 +$3 +35%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $27,700 −$28 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 39d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 98d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 115d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $46 138d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $46 160d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $33 180d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY No 100¢ $33 218d
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $20 234d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 BUY No 68¢ $2 240d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY No 100¢ $5 258d
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000? BUY No 100¢ $6 258d
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? BUY No 86¢ $11 258d
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 258d
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 258d
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 258d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? BUY No 30¢ $2 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,941 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,944 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,944 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,947 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,947 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,950 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,950 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,953 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,953 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,956 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,956 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,958 258d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,958 258d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.55 · official $46.55 (match) · 55 history records