Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8966…5d80
world · 79 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7,553 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,954 · open −$598
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Net worth$836
Realized−$6,954
Unrealized−$598
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses41 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage165d
Avg bet$754
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$173
14 days−$159
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $557 $555 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $877 $281 −$596 (-68%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ $313 $0 −$313 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $290 +$34 +12%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1,149 −$206 -18%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 30 $142 +$14 +10%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 23 $372 +$118 +32%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $457 +$41 +9%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $225 +$88 +39%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $114 −$20 -17%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,385 +$130 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $110 +$8 +8%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? May 06 $3 +$7 +223%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? May 06 $604 +$105 +17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $625 −$310 -50%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $1,143 +$79 +7%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 27 $712 +$283 +40%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 21 $183 −$98 -53%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 15 $109 −$5 -5%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $225 +$75 +33%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 12 $46 +$84 +181%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 12 $18 +$15 +83%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $54 −$22 -41%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 11 $504 −$504 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $4,247 −$4,202 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 11 $532 −$532 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 11 $3,413 −$3,004 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +15%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $212 $0 +0%
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $150 −$150 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $6,575 +$1,042 +16%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $3,514 +$389 +11%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 30 $1,292 +$4 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 24 $935 +$105 +11%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 18 $225 −$55 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 16 $5,272 +$34 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 03 $441 +$9 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? Mar 02 $434 +$7 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $343 +$189 +55%
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026? Feb 28 $127 −$127 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $225 −$225 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $258 −$258 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Feb 28 $82 −$82 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $510 −$510 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $426 +$83 +20%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $415 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 77% −$7,925
other 15% +$1,058
politics 8% −$677
sports 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $328 53m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $231 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $15 20h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 94¢ $268 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $231 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $31 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $77 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 95¢ $85 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 95¢ $189 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 20¢ $117 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 34¢ $82 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 22¢ $237 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 78¢ $259 12d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $156 12d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 18d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 18d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 18d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 18d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 18d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $134 19d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $47 19d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 19d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 19d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 19d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 34¢ $56 19d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $490 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $1 21d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $2 21d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $0 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 50% -20.4%
≤30d 8 +9.4% -1.0% 75% 38% -5.2%
≤90d 39 -7.0% -15.9% 59% 33% -26.5%
all 77 -13.9% -22.1% 53% 29% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 29% -20.4%
10% -29.6% 18% -28.0%
15% -36.4% 14% -35.0%
20% -42.6% 9% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $836.05 · official $836.05 (match) · 926 history records