Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8968…c3c1
sports · 671 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$355 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$329 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,166
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses365 / 317
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions187
Markets (closed)682 / 671
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day900.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 187 History 682 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,048
7 days−$329
14 days−$329
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions KT Wiz 54¢ 44¢ $63 $51 −$12 (-19%)
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $18 $25 +$6 (+35%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Hanwha Eagles 39¢ 53¢ $17 $22 +$6 (+34%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? No 82¢ 84¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prelims) Muslim Salikhov 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 82¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 84¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+80%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 75¢ 78¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 78¢ 78¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 71¢ 74¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 91¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 85¢ 100¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+17%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 37¢ 100¢ $6 $16 +$10 (+170%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 96¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 95¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 60¢ 57¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 95¢ 90¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 98¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 89¢ 100¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 72¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 97¢ 90¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 90¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $18 +$6 +35%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 12 $15 −$2 -15%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $9 +$1 +15%
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$6 +141%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +76%
Little Rock: Philip Sekulic vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Halys (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Perugia: Remy Bertola vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Tabilo vs. Vacherot: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bratislava: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 12 $6 −$2 -26%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +245%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $4 −$1 -34%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +47%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Arch vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$2 +150%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Tochigi SC end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +335%
Set 1 Winner: Schoolkate vs Harris Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
ITF Luan: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Tsung Hao Huang Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Tristan Schoolkate vs. Lloyd Harris: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Dominican Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Arnaldi vs Cobolli Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 12 $0 $0 +138%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +665%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $0 +$1 +727%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Foggia: Giorgia Pedone vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $0 $0 +400%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 +354%
Madrid Open: Panna Udvardy vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Pharco FC vs. El Gouna SC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
AZ vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Jan Kumstat Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 Series Cyprus vs Croatia, Women: Cyprus vs Croatia - Toss Match Do Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$993
other 31% +$133
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 2m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 10m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 17m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 19m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 30m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 30m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 44m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 47m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $1 47m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 48m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 682 +33.9% +21.1% 54% 47% -17.8%
≤30d 682 +33.9% +21.1% 54% 47% -17.8%
≤90d 682 +33.9% +21.1% 54% 47% -17.8%
all 682 +33.9% +21.1% 54% 47% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover900.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.1% 47% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here +9.5% 43% -25.6%
15% -1.1% 38% -32.8%
20% -10.8% 31% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,166.16 · official $1,162.18 (match) · 3500 history records