Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x896a…cec5
sports · 127 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$84
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses53 / 54
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions20
Markets (closed)107 / 127
History coverage63d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 20 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$3
14 days−$45
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 20¢ 62¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+210%)
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 52¢ 99¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+90%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 65¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 93¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 89¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 49¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Ozarox Esports 62¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Team Falcons 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$3 +219%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$4 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 +$3 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$4 +365%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$4 +114%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$3 +43%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $4 +$3 +73%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Set 1 Winner: Nesterov vs Cecchinato Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +99%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$6 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will BetBoom Team win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $3 $0 +8%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $10 −$5 -50%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 −$2 -32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$4 +86%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$4 +107%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$4 -72%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $5 +$4 +86%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% −$44
politics 25% −$5
other 10% +$1
world 3% +$2
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $4 32m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 46¢ $2 47m
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 56¢ $12 47m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $3 2h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 56¢ $2 2h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 48¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 35¢ $2 3h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $3 3h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $3 4h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 12h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 31¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 14¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 8¢ $1 19h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $5 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $5 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 77¢ $5 27h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 74¢ $4 27h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 81¢ $5 27h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 42¢ $2 43h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 41¢ $2 43h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $5 46h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $2 47h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Benjamin Bonzi 22¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 42% -11.1%
≤30d 102 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 42% -15.7%
≤90d 107 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 41% -13.6%
all 107 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 41% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 41% -13.6%
10% -26.6% 35% -21.9%
15% -33.7% 28% -29.5%
20% -40.2% 20% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.35 · official $84.35 (match) · 261 history records