Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x896e…53f2 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,476 (-9%) realized −$30,455 · open +$5,979
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%35W / 40L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,344per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$1,863est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$26,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$1,693
other 39% −$7,658
crypto 13% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +4.6% -5.4% 44% 44% -13.9%
≤30d 75 -4.9% -13.9% 47% 43% -14.2%
≤90d 75 -4.9% -13.9% 47% 43% -14.2%
all 75 -4.9% -13.9% 47% 43% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 43% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 43% -22.4%
15% -29.7% 39% -29.9%
20% -36.6% 32% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$5,000) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,449 vs −$2,450 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$26,066
Realized−$30,455
Unrealized+$5,979
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,863
Open positions6
Markets (closed)75 / 81
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3,344
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6,000 $5,975 −$25 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,000 $5,875 +$875 (+17%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $5,000 $5,050 +$50 (+1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ $100 $4,452 +$4,352 (+4352%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes $1,487 $2,448 +$961 (+65%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 31¢ 28¢ $2,500 $2,267 −$233 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7,618 +$12,058 +158%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,208 −$256 -5%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $6,387 +$4,477 +70%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,954 −$1,937 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,090 −$10,000 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,018 +$1,478 +145%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $636 +$513 +81%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $3,040 +$2,374 +78%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,529 −$104 -7%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $5,067 −$5,000 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8,676 +$4,146 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7,107 −$7,000 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,063 +$3,558 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,035 −$2,000 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,017 +$1,305 +128%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,031 +$2,131 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $10,117 −$234 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10,096 −$10,000 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $821 −$800 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7,691 +$5,186 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $4,543 +$2,023 +44%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,053 −$4,116 -82%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5,067 −$5,000 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $935 −$913 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5,078 +$4,018 +79%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $513 −$500 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,040 −$3,000 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,078 +$5,328 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $718 −$700 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $8,199 −$2,149 -26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3,077 −$3,000 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $8,128 −$5,000 -62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,031 +$2,131 +105%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,035 −$2,000 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,039 +$3,616 +177%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,054 −$2,599 -64%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5,055 +$2,799 +55%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2,236 +$926 +41%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,138 +$3,191 +149%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,055 −$3,000 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,044 −$3,000 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,555 +$7,060 +276%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10,093 +$4,400 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,534 +$1,608 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,048 +$3,329 +109%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,504 −$1,469 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6,159 36m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5,147 36m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5,075 42m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $19,677 44m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,558 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $5,060 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $4,952 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $2,552 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $10,863 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5,208 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $515 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4,201 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $946 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $601 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,009 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $998 5h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $6,387 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $6,399 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,954 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10,090 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $1,944 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $1,149 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $552 9h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $5,414 9h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 56¢ $1,520 11h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 55¢ $1,520 11h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $1,425 11h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1,529 11h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 55¢ $5,067 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,065.69 · official $26,065.69 (match) · 461 history records