Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8973…c6de crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,913 (-41%) realized −$1,913 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$1,027
crypto 32% −$478
finance 16% −$224
other 14% −$384
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.7% -37.3% 40% 33% -27.4%
≤30d 15 -30.7% -37.3% 40% 33% -27.4%
≤90d 32 -31.5% -38.0% 41% 38% -34.6%
all 42 -38.3% -44.1% 33% 31% -55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 31% -55.3%
10% -49.5% 26% -59.6%
15% -54.4% 26% -63.5%
20% -58.8% 19% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$95 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,913
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage112d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Over 8¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$4 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$5 +15%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $27 −$8 -29%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 18 $69 −$68 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 18 $36 −$25 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 18 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 18 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 18 $258 −$200 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 18 $256 −$50 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 18 $131 −$57 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 18 $77 +$38 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 18 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 18 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 18 $57 +$39 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5 May 18 $157 +$158 +101%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Mar 12 $435 −$435 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5 Mar 12 $226 +$209 +93%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 11 $195 −$195 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $186 −$186 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 10 $208 −$208 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $658 −$384 -58%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 10 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 10 $39 −$8 -21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 10 $251 −$133 -53%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 10 $465 −$82 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.51 (match) · 134 history records